or four or five bedrooms with a pool and great community in Ipswich – and grammar schools at a third of the cost,” she said. “We look at the market and think, ‘Wow, that’s just unbelievable’, and then it’ll spike again.” Queensland’s first home owner grant threshold moved to $700,000 on 1 July, fueling demand for properties under that price, she added. And accessing the CBD from the outer suburbs just got cheaper.There are now 50-cent flat fares on all Translink services across Queensland plus local buses, trains, ferries and trams. Investors, especially from southern states, are also snapping up homes around Ipswich due to their affordability, and represent around 20% of the buyer pool, said Ms Frank. FUELLED BY MIGRATION The tropical Queensland capital will continue to attract buyers from southern states, experts predict. Since Covid hit in 2020, Queensland’s population has grown by 6.6%, compared with 4.7% for Australia as a whole, according to the ABS. “Brisbane was a significant beneficiary of the population flows north that we saw throughout the pandemic, ahead of Perth and Adelaide,” said Ms Creagh. “Queensland has always been the retirement destination of choice,” added Mr Kuestenmacher.“Remember that old joke,‘he died so young. He hadn’t even moved to Queensland yet’. That will continue to ring true.” Agent Tom Lyne from Ray White New Farm said inner-north riverside suburbs like New Farm and Teneriffe are main beneficiaries of interstate movers. “We get a huge amount of interstate inquiries. New Farm and Teneriffe are the best-known cosmopolitan locations in Brisbane.” The median value of houses in New Farm has risen by 2.9% to $2.65 million in the year to November; Teneriffe houses by 9.8% to $4.1 million. However, high property prices and interest rate rises have reduced yields, deterring investors and causing existing ones to pull out. This has further reduced rental stock in a pattern reflected across the city. Mr Kuestenmacher believes overseas migrants, potentially numbering 250,000 each year, will continue to boost demand in the inner suburbs of our capitals. “In the next decade, the main game is growth in the city centre and the urban fringe,” he said. Brisbane will also benefit from the ‘Olympic effect’, he added. “It’s all about reputation both in Australia and overseas, making people want to move there.” Growth starting to slow Signs suggest growth may be slowing in Brisbane. Home prices rose by 0.3% in November, down from 0.4% in August and 0.5% in June. Ms Creagh believes affordability constraints will cool the market. “The relative affordability advantage has deteriorated significantly after Brisbane’s strong growth in recent years. We’re starting to see an easing in those population flows,” she said. But it will be interesting to see how Brisbane reacts to anticipated lower interest rates next year, she added. “I’d expect to see a more muted response to lower rates compared to previous cycles, given the current affordability issues.” Queenslanders’ plan, which aims to fast-track 900,000 new homes, including over 2,000 social dwellings annually until 2046. FRINGE BENEFITS Ms Creagh noted that prices have risen the most in Brisbane’s more affordable areas as buyers are pushed down the cost curve. “It’s the affordable end of the market that’s recording stronger growth,” she said. Ipswich, in the city’s southwest, and Logan, in its south, have been top performers in the past year. Ipswich’s population is expected to double from 254,000 to 533,000 by 2046, the fastest projected growth in southeast Queensland. Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher predicts increasing demand for family-sized houses on Brisbane’s urban fringe, driven by millennials moving out of one- and two-bedroom apartments in the city. “The baby boomers in Brisbane aren’t downsizing; they’re hogging the three- and four-bedroom homes in the suburbs. These won’t be available to the younger generation until the mid-30s, a decade away,” he said. “So millennials will look to the urban fringe for family-sized homes. That’s why Ipswich and Logan will go gangbusters.” Ipswich median house prices rose 39.1% and units 24.2% in the year to September, while Logan Central saw 28.4% growth for houses and 30.7% for units. Both areas saw softer growth in the November quarter – but growth none the less. Agent June Frank from Walkers Real Estate in Ipswich sees this trend in action. “People in their 30s, with or planning to have children, are moving to Ipswich. With $1.3 million, you get a tiny post-war wreck in Brisbane 6 BUSINESS VIEW OCEANIA VOLUME 06, ISSUE 12
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