CONDITIONS FAVOURABLE FOR AUSTRALIA’S LIVESTOCK SECTOR –RABOBANK 2026 OUTLOOK Source: www.arr.news, New Editor, First Published December 18th, 2025 Export market demand has supported elevated prices for Australian lamb, mutton and beef through much of 2025, with favourable market conditions expected to continue into the new year, according to agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank. In its Global animal protein outlook 2026, the bank’s RaboResearch division says high cattle inventories will maintain elevated Australian beef production, while sheepmeat production takes time to recover. SHEEP AND LAMB PRODUCTION Report co-author, RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said Australian lamb and sheep output is expected to contract in 2026 after dry seasonal conditions hit large areas of the country’s sheep-producing regions in 2024 and into 2025. “The smaller flock, following high sheep slaughter in 2024 (the highest in over 15 years) and 2025, is likely to result in lower lamb slaughter in 2026. And improved seasonal conditions will spark efforts to rebuild the flock, further compounding the reduction in lamb slaughter,” Mr GidleyBaird said. “Meat & Livestock Australia projects lamb slaughter to contract two per cent in 2026 after a six per cent tumble in 2025 and sheep slaughter to plunge 18 per cent in 2026 after a 15 per cent drop in 2025,” he said.“Lamb production is expected to fall one per cent to 607,000 million tonnes in 2026 after a three per cent reduction in 2025.” Mr Gidley-Baird said with lower supplies, better seasonal conditions and ongoing strong demand from export markets, RaboResearch expected lamb prices to remain strong, though lower than the current historic highs. “Given current conditions, we believe lamb prices of AUD9 to AUD10 a kilogram would be more sustainable,” he said. BEEF PRODUCTION Mr Gidley-Baird said successive favourable seasons have allowed Australia’s cattle breeding inventory to build, and cattle were now flowing through to markets. “Even southern areas – which experienced dry conditions throughout 2024 and into 2025 and offloaded stock at the time – are likely to have seen production levels recover in the second half of 2025,” he said.“As such, 2025 production is projected to reach 2.86 million tonnes, up 11 per cent year-on-year and a new record.” Mr Gidley-Baird said with large cattle inventories in Australia, “we anticipate beef production in 2026 to remain steady at historically-high levels, reaching 2.85 million tonnes – the second highest production volume in Australia’s history”. “Substantial production volumes will translate to ongoing elevated export volumes, with the US likely to remain the key market, accounting for 29 per cent of total Australian Opening Lines 5 BUSINESS VIEW OCEANIA VOLUME 07, ISSUE 12
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