influence dietary choices. “Price pressures within animal protein categories may lead consumers to trade down or switch between proteins, while consumers seeking protein-rich foods will potentially boost animal protein demand,” she said. TRADE RESILIENCE Despite disruptions, the Rabobank report said animal protein trade has shown resilience, with strategic frontloading, like shipments of Brazilian beef into the US, helping to sustain volumes amid volatility and shifting tariffs that are reshaping global flows. Meanwhile, supply-demand imbalances continue to seek equilibrium, a trend that is likely to persist in 2026. Geopolitical tensions and evolving policies will continue to influence trade, but new trade agreements may provide a boost. DISEASE CHALLENGES Global disease outbreaks have also disrupted trade, squeezed margins and pressured productivity in the animal proteins sectors, the report said. Disease outbreaks such as African swine fever and avian influenza continue to disrupt trade and squeeze margins, RaboResearch said.“Combined with emerging diseases like New World screwworm and Bluetongue, these challenges are driving greater adoption of biosecurity measures and increased focus on new approaches to managing disease pressure, though implementation remains complex,” it said. SUSTAINABILITY AND TECHNOLOGY In an uncertain operating environment, sustainabilityrelated risks linked to climate and nature are increasingly critical, the outlook said. Regulatory momentum is pushing sustainability to the forefront of strategic planning for animal protein companies, it said. The report said technology,particularly artificial intelligence, offers potential benefits for managing operational risks and advancing sustainability goals, though investment remains weak. “While not all AI applications will transform the industry, strategic integration into existing workflows could spark meaningful progress in a sector that is traditionally slow to adopt new technologies,” it said. “Maintaining consumer trust is paramount. In times of heightened risk, consumers continue to prioritise animal welfare, supply availability, price, food safety and quality, and these demands are driving advancements in transparency and traceability,” Ms Gocsik said. beef exports in 2025,” he said. “South Korea (which accounted for 15 per cent share of Australian beef exports in 2025) and Japan (16 per cent) will remain important markets, while volumes to China (18 per cent) are expected to rise, given the ongoing tensions between China and the US.” With sizable volumes of beef in the market, Mr GidleyBaird said, cattle prices in 2026 will depend on producer sentiment and seasonal conditions. “We believe that cattle prices will remain close to current levels, with some potential upside given the strong US market, and that the National Young Cattle Indicator will sit around AUD 4.30 to AUD 4.80/kg. However, if seasonal conditions deteriorate and producers lose confidence, high cattle inventories and increased slaughter numbers will see prices contract,” he said. GLOBAL PROTEIN OUTLOOK According to the RaboResearch outlook, the global animal protein industry is set to experience a slowdown in production growth in 2026, driven by both cyclical and structural factors. Seafood and poultry will lead growth, while pork and beef production will contract.The sector faces challenges from disease outbreaks, trade disruptions and sustainability pressures, requiring strategic adaptation and technological integration from industry players. RISING COSTS RaboResearch global strategist animal protein Éva Gocsik said globally, while the bank expected feed costs to remain steady, a combination of lower protein supplies, rising volatility and trade costs and disease pressure will weigh on margins. “Processors (in regions where supplies are limited) may face ongoing challenges around capacity utilisation, as well as trade disruptions resulting from tariffs and other protectionist measures. All of this could raise costs, pressure demand and ultimately squeeze margins. In both mature and developing markets, a focus on increasing efficiency and productivity will be critical at the farm and processor level,” she said. PRICE SENSITIVITY According to Ms Gocsik, with global gross domestic product growth projected to decelerate, consumers are likely to become increasingly price-sensitive, altering their consumption patterns. At the same time, the rising use of glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists (GLP-1) weight loss medications is also likely to 6 BUSINESS VIEW OCEANIA VOLUME 07, ISSUE 12
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTI5MjAx